![]() ![]() Data on armed conflicts, trends, and peace agreements. The Integrated Network for Societal Conflict Research (INSCR) was established to coordinate and integrate information resources produced and used by the Center for Systemic Peace. Higher rates of asylum recognition by host countries act as an important pull factor, positively correlated with receiving additional new asylum claims.Ĭontribution: This paper contributes to the empirical literature on the determinants of international forced migration by empirically examining the latest bilateral migration data and the associations with armed conflict and growing forms of organized violence in the origin countries. The Integrated Network for Societal Conflict Research (INSCR) was established to coordinate and integrate information resources produced and used by the Center for Systemic Peace. Integrated Network for Societal Conflict Research (INSCR) data sets. Results also show that economic conditions, the presence of previous migrant communities in the destination country, distance, and presence of a common language between the origin and destination countries are relevant drivers of new asylum applications. Results suggest that people flee terror and war but also violence and insecurity emerging from non-conflict-affected areas and perpetrated by different criminal actors. Results: The intensity of the conflict and where the fighting is taking place explain an essential portion of the variation in flows of asylum applications and stocks of refugees. Introducing ACLED-Armed Conflict Location and Event Data. Please cite data as: Raleigh, Clionadh, Andrew Linke, Havard Hegre and Joakim Karlsen. Methods: We explore different measures that capture the severity and geographical spread of armed conflicts and link them to the dependent variables by fitting a gravity model. ACLED includes data from 1997 to 2016, with real-time conflict data updated monthly for all of Africa and weekly for 30 high-risk states. Objective: The main aim is to empirically investigate the relationship that armed conflicts have with first-time asylum applications and refugee stocks in and outside Europe. This paper analyzes recent trends of increasing asylum applications and refugee stocks and examines the influence of conflicts, as well as political and economic factors, as primary push and pull factors. Data Sources Uppsala Conflict Database Program / Peace Research Institute Oslo Armed conflicts, non-state conflicts, one-sided violence, and battle-related. The Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) has recorded ongoing violent conflicts since the 1970s. In the process, it provides insight into why many of these systems have yet to live up to expectations.Background: The growing relevance of migration in the policy agenda of both host and sending countries asks for a better understanding of factors shaping migration processes. This article offers a descriptive review of the form and function of conflict early warning systems over the past four decades. Despite these challenges, investments in advanced data collection and analysis techniques including machine learning, natural language processing and artificial intelligence are influencing the practice of early warning and response. The latter is the core of the so-called ‘warning-response’ gap. These include, inter alia, limitations in early warning assessments the limited availability, coverage, quality and verifiability of real-time data complex modelling challenges emerging from endogeneity inherent in conflict processes and, not least, an inherent lack of political will among relevant actors to act upon robust and compelling evidence of heightened risks of organized violence. Yet, the practical operationalization of conflict prevention and conflict early warning lags behind its theoretical development for several reasons. This growing engagement, coupled with advances in computing, has triggered increased investment in enhanced early warning mechanisms with increasingly sophisticated temporal and spatial dimensions. We evaluate the ability of this study to predict observed conflicts in the 20102018 period, using multiple metrics. While the commitment of nations to broader conflict prevention was not universally shared in the twentieth century, the concept of conflict prevention – and by extension, conflict early warning – has acquired salience in international relations over the last 30 years. Abstract Can we predict civil war This article sheds light on this question by evaluating 9 years of, at the time, future predictions made by Hegre et al. Conflict early warning is supposed to identify and trigger actions to reduce the onset, duration, intensity, and effects of multiple forms of political violence.
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